January 16th, 2012 / 2 Comments » / by Grundy
To me, poker is a perfect blend of skill and chance. And although I may not sing this song when my aces are cracked, chance is good. Chance makes the game accessible. A complete newbie has a chance to beat a seasoned pro in the short run. This is good for the newbie obviously, but also good for the pro as it draws in a new player to the game for him to teach the hard lessons.
What games can compare to the skill/luck ratio of poker? Well there are games like tic-tac-toe, checkers and chess on one end of the spectrum. These are all skill based and at varying levels of difficulty. The flaw in not involving chance is that each aforementioned game can be won with a predetermined best move in every situation. We all should know how to play tic-tac-toe to either a win or a draw by now. Checkers and chess are the same only at a much more complex level–as proven by computers ability to overcome the best of us.
The other side of the spectrum? Keno is devoid of skill and a good example of how chance can quickly go too far. (Despite what Bizarro Grundy might have to say.)
So if poker is a middle ground, what other games can compare? Well, there are other card games of course…bridge, canasta, gin rummy to name a few. I am not too experienced in most of these, but without the opportunity to bluff it takes away some of the psychological element that I love so much. Of course you can bluff in “BS,” but that game lacks the gentlemanly quality.
Backgammon is a popular gateway game into poker. The introduction of dice bring chance to an otherwise skillful game. Stratego is another favorite of mine. It involves neither cards nor dice, but the mystery of the placement of your opponents pieces allow for lucky guesses at times. Man, I miss that game.
What else? Are there any other games that achieve the balance of skill and chance?
Posted in: Rants & Ravings
Tags: chance, games, skill
January 6th, 2012 / 1 Comment » / by Grundy
Do you…
(a) think the government should not be in so much debt, but don’t really feel like paying more taxes to cover the IOUs?
or
(b) play poker and want to enjoy the game legally from the comfort of your own home.
Then you should pass this letter on to the Joint Select Committee on Deficit Reduction (found here http://deficitreduction.senate.gov/public/index.cfm/contact because…
(a) you’ll sit back and watch a bunch of degenerate gamblers pay a vice tax to help get the country back on track.
or
(b) it will let the government know that you want to enjoy the game legally from the comfort of your own home.
Here is a sample letter provided by the Poker Player’s Alliance.
“Dear Honorable Joint Select Committee Members,
Please support HR 2366 — raise revenue without raising taxes
As a voter and tax payer, I am writing to ask that you please consider H.R. 2366, the Online Poker Act of 2011, during your deficit reduction discussions. This bipartisan legislation, sponsored by Congressman Joe Barton (R-TX), will provide much needed federal and state revenue without raising taxes. It will also bring American companies into the Internet poker market, creating thousands of new jobs that we so desperately need. It will provide for strong consumer protections and age verification requirements as well.
Former Homeland Security Advisor Tom Ridge supports federal licensing of online poker because it addresses control and accountability of cash flows. Additionally, WiredSafety, the world’s largest Internet safety group, concluded that “combining a thoughtful regulatory scheme with education, technology tools, and support appears to be the most effective means of handling the realities and risks” of online poker. This groundbreaking study can be found at www.theppa.org/harvardstudy. U.S.-based horse race wagering sites have proven that online betting sites can successfully implement these important protections. The game of poker deserves no less.
This bill does not authorize video poker or any other house-banked casino-style game. Rather, it provides for sensible regulation of the game of online poker — the electronic version of the game families across America play at the kitchen table — and is limited to this person-to-person game of skill.
Every federal dollar wasted on efforts to stop American adults from playing online poker is another dollar added to the federal deficit. Quite frankly, there’s simply no reason for the deficit reduction super committee to ignore HR 2366.
Thank you for your consideration,
Add your name here”
Posted in: Crusade
Tags: debt, deficit, government, poker
November 29th, 2011 / 1 Comment » / by Grundy
It was four years ago that I began my textual journey into the underbelly of the game we call poker. Thank you all for reading and joining the conversation. I have met a lot of funny, talented and insightful poker people along the way. You know who you are.
I guess the big anniversary is next year. I should do something…
Posted in: A Welcome
Tags: anniversary, poker
November 28th, 2011 / No Comments » / by Grundy
I came across this article about how we should think about all things in terms of odds, not just gambling. The premise is that very few things in life are certain, so we should consider our probability in being correct rather than assuming absolute knowledge or ignorance. The writer make a great case why we should think of these probabiliies as odds rather than the traditional percentages.
Here is a great refresher on odds from the article:
Let’s have a quick refresher on what “odds” are. We all know what a probability is (or at least, we’re familiar with the term!). Odds can be seen as ratios of probabilities. Just as we use P(A) for the “probability of A,” we may talk about O(A), the “odds of A” (where A is some apparently sensible proposition).
In terms of probabilities, O(A) = P(A)/P(~A). So for example, if there is a 66% probability of rain tomorrow, then O(rain) = 0.66/(1-0.66), or more easily 66:33, which finally reduces to 2:1 (usually read “two to one in favour”). The “:” is basically just a division sign, so O(rain) can be stated as “2 to 1” or as simply “2.” Although odds can be expressed as ratios of probabilities, they are best understood on their own terms altogether. In this case, “odds of 2 to 1 in favour of rain tomorrow” means something like “days like this are followed by twice as many rainy days as non-rainy days, to the best of my knowledge.”
Odds are even more familiar from the racetrack, where a bookie might give “10 to 1 on Longshot, to win.” What this means is that if the bookie is selling stakes for $5 each, then a single $5 stake will get you (10+1)*$5 = $55 if you win (i.e., a gain of $50 plus your $5 stake back), while a loss will simply lose you your $5 stake. (Of course, in order to make money, the bookie must think that the realodds on Longshot are even longer than 10 to 1.)
Obviously, this all applies to cards, but also life in general. Check out
Rationally Speaking for more.
Posted in: Strategy & Tips
October 31st, 2011 / 3 Comments » / by Grundy
The hardest part about using the best practices of poker is finding consistency in their application. I know that early tournament play is about survival. I know when I need to start playing aggressive to build my chip stack. And I know how my starting hand odds become better short-handed. My problem is after a few hands of committing to the correct style of play, I start to shift back into the style which I’m most comfortable. Overcoming this requires willpower, a long attention span, and, in my case, headphones.
I’ve already written about some of my favorite poker tunes, but I’ve learned that music can be more than diversion at the card table. In film, musical cues help the audience to feel how the director wants them to feel. You might think you are shedding a tear for the visual performance of the starlet’s death scene, but the accompanying violins have a very clear and intended affect. This same affect can be applied to poker.
I have a series of playlists. The first inspires aggression and a sense of urgency, made up of scores from chase scenes and mounting suspense. Think of tracks from the new Tron soundtrack or anything from the Bourne Trilogy, Batman Begins & Mission: Impossible.
The next playlist backs off the energy. I use this when I want to go back to the status quo, which for me is fairly tight play. Any “character building” movie music should work here. Anything you like, my playlist is mostly light John Williams.
Another playlist consists of entirely slow and happy music. I have a few Pixar scores here. I use this to take the edge off when I’m coming off a bad beat dangerously close to going on tilt.
Music can both sooth and waken the savage beast within, the trick is just finding what is right for you. If movie music isn’t your thing, so be it. Personally, I just find the connection to theatrical moments make the desired affect more prominent, not to mention the fact that lyrics distract me.
Posted in: Strategy & Tips
July 24th, 2011 / No Comments » / by Grundy
When playing poker face to face you should use different skills than you would to win on-line. Physical tells can give you insight into your opponent’s hand. Here are some things to look for:
- Shaking hands or a flush face usually come from the adrenaline caused by a player’s excitement about a strong hand. Don’t assume shaking means nervousness, often the player is quite confident they will win.
- Your opponent will likely cover his cards with his hand or look back at them more than once. This is a subconscious action in line with the desire to protect what one considers valuable. Keep in mind that you are looking for anything out of the ordinary. If he always covers his card in the same way, it means nothing.
- Disinterest and drawing attention away from the game is often an act to disguise a big hand.
- A player with a weak hand, hoping to bluff, may throw his chips into the pot aggressively and make a point for direct eye contact with the player thinking about the call. Often acting strong equals weak and acting weak equals strong.
It is also important to note that if you are up against an inexperienced (or drunk) player, the tells will be less reliable. This is because tells don’t really give you information about your opponent’s hand, only about how you opponent perceives the strength of his hand. If the hand is misread, you will be mistold.
Mistold is a new word copyright HellsColdDay 2008.
Posted in: Poker Life Lessons
Tags: betting, gambling, games, poker, tells
July 16th, 2011 / No Comments » / by Grundy
The law of averages is often quoted for an optimistic view of a player’s future. When applied to poker, it basically says that after a string of bad beats or weak hands, you are due a lucky break or strong hand. This positive luck supposedly makes up for the negative luck (unluck?) and maintains average luck. I’m all for optimism, but lets be a realist here.
The law of averages is useless with small samples. If your memory alone can keep track of your poker hands, it is a small sample size. If you work with the statistics of months of quantified luck (I call this profits and losses) you will eventually see an average.
For example, if your long-term stats show that you typically win $5 in an hour of play, and your most recent hour nets you $50, you can expect the next hour to be closer to $5 then to $50. This is called regression towards the mean. $5 is the mean, or average. If you think of the “law of averages” in terms of returning your hourly profits to $5/hour regardless of what ever hot or cold streak you just came off, then you’d be correct. It’s just that no one thinks of the law of averages like this.
As a rule, disregard the waves of fortune and misfortune from day to day and focus on playing good cards. Only detailed records can give you any insight on what to expect in the future.
Posted in: Strategy & Tips
Tags: gambling, law of averages, math, poker, probability, statistics, tips
July 3rd, 2011 / No Comments » / by Grundy
You don’t have to live in the States to celebrate Independence Day with an “all-in,” but it helps.
Speaking of summer, is this taking the whole fish/shark poker analogy too far? Who cares? I am so getting this.
Posted in: Uncategorized
June 29th, 2011 / No Comments » / by Grundy
The following is a sponsored post about how to make poker more interesting.
Although there are many games that come and go over the years, not all of them are successful when it comes to stability. Not every game will find its way into the homes of a number of generations, with the power to remain familiar to anybody that hears about them. Some games for children manage to achieve this status, and there are also a few adult games that have staying power, as well. One of them is poker. Although popular, it is frequently seen as boring. There are steps that can be taken to keep it interesting.
1. In order to keep players in the game or anybody that might be watching interested, it is never a bad idea to try to find a unique place to play. For instance, the kitchen table is a common setting for poker, but there is not much in the way of variety and stimulation. If somebody is up for it, the poker game can take place in the middle of a pool, or in a car, if possible. Taking the game out of its typical element makes it feel fresh and new, leaving people more alert.
2. If the idea above is not an option, the person that is putting together the gaming session can suggest that everybody is given a nickname. This will depend on the demographic involved and what everybody is comfortable with. They can come up with their own names or ask other players to create something suitable. A player could get inspiration from their favorite television show and ask to be named after a character, or they could simply come up with a nickname that is original. When the game is being played, all present should be encouraged to only use nicknames as often as they can.
3. Themes are widely used for other games and events, and poker should not be excluded from this possibility. The poker game can, for example, revolve around tropical islands; players would don fun shirts and sip special drinks. The poker game could revolve around certain eras in history, allowing players to dress as pilgrims, royalty, or whatever else they might like. When people are not wearing what they typically can be seen in, it is easier for them to get into a mood that allows them to have a good time and play their best. This is a possibility for poker that should be kept in mind.
It can be difficult to make certain games interesting. Some games, such as UK online bingo, are new phenomena. Even if they are popular and have remained in the public eye for generations, some individuals will not understand why, and may perhaps find them boring. Golf suffers from this problem, along with croquet and other games. However, with a bit of creativity and setting time aside for planning, everything can be made new again. With poker, it all comes done to doing something different and unexpected. Players should be encouraged to make it their own in some way; this can make poker players of any age get more out of it, besides an evening with friends.
Posted in: Uncategorized
May 25th, 2011 / 2 Comments » / by Grundy
On question/answer site Quora, the question “What is the best way to overcome extended tilt?” was posed. Good question. Here are the answers: (mine’s at the bottom)
Kevin Ko says:
The short answer is you just need to develop the discipline to move on from the emotional residue of a previous hand. You can’t change past events, the best you can do is learn from them and move on. Most people still suffer from feeling tilty during the same session but it’s rare for this to carry on throughout a wider period of time. This may be the sign of weak emotional control.
A more thorough, long answer involves a deep understanding of what tilt really is, the dangers of tilt, and having the sensibility to understand how it affects your career if you’re a long-term playing professional.
Subtle Tilt – Being even mildly distracted from playing your absolute A game. These factors can be external or internal. E.g. You’re bored and want to start playing looser than your typical range, a player at your table starts talking trash and makes you want to “target” him in particular, or recent losses have made your upset and you don’t think clearly throughout your subsequent hands.
Monkey Tilt – Full-blown monkey tilt is that sort of tilt where you simply blow up and start open-shoving hands, playing without any modicum of thought or logic, and are just intent on burning money in a hopeless attempt at making some money back. In traditional media, this is depicted as the guy who keeps chasing losses and ends up losing his house.
In most cases, subtle tilt is the precursor to monkey tilt, although for the most emotionally undisciplined, entering monkey tilt phase can happen instantly. The key then is to limit subtle tilt, which in itself is still dangerous. What’s nice though is that if you limit your subtle tilting, you won’t tilt that much overall and throughout your sessions. Performing at your A-game at all times is a subject for a different time, but it involves extreme focus, emotional stability (and maintaining it), and the clear headed-ness to reason that tilting from a hand is both irrational because your tilt won’t change the result of the hand, and detrimental because all it means is that for the next x amount of hands, you will be in a phase of subtle tilt or monkey tilt.
The reason why subtle tilt is dangerous is because while the effects and detrimental results are negligible at first, they add up over the course of “the long run”. Due to subtle tilt, you played hands awkwardly, your bet sizing was less than optimal, you played “fun” hands, you tried to chase a quick win before the end of your session, you didn’t quit in time, etc. you end up losing quite a bit in these marginal losses, but consider that most online professionals play hundreds of thousands to even millions of hands per year.
Without going into specific dollar amounts, in one of my nascent years as a professional player, I estimated my losses from subtle tilt, mostly due to not quitting early enough (as part of a stop-loss I used to mitigate tilt effects), to be about 20% of the amount I actually won that year. With poker being so hard already at higher levels, a 20% edge by simply making positive emotional and mental adjustments internally is an absolute gold mine.
Nelson Denoon weights in:
The root cause of any sort of tilting at the poker table is an inability to embrace the moment as it is, that is, regretting what may have happened a minute or more ago or worrying about what is going to happen an minute or more from now.
To overcome tilt, one must cultivate the ability to fully accept what is. To not do so is counterproductive since, no matter how much emotional discharge you apply to this moment, this moment still is.
So if you lose a huge pot that you really wanted to win and you lose it because some guy you dislike caught a one outer on the river, it will hurt. If you embrace the pain and the fact that he is raking in what you wish were your chips and that you are at that moment irreversibly (since the suchness of the moment is indisputable), then your tendency to latch on to regret or ride the wave of worry will subside. Moreover, even if it is understandable and logical, your self-hatred will not get the best of you.
Moreover, although this may be sinister, an effective way to induce tilt behavior in an opponent is to underscore, through words or gestures, that opponent’s past hands, thereby often triggering regret and worry about the future in him, that is, inducing tilt in your opponent.
I think:
Timon and Pumbaa said it best: hakuna matata.
I don’t think this is something you can ever fix completely, some people are just more prone to tilt than others. However, here are two quick tips.
1. Live and play in the present. Take the raw information of the past with you, but only if you can let the emotions of the past go. If a guy made a statistically bad move chasing to the river, count on him doing it again and you’ll profit off him more often then he will profit off you. Don’t dwell on each invidiual loss, think about the big picture.
2. Don’t take things personal. A bad beat isn’t a personal attack.
3. Keep in mind that sometimes you are the one who gets lucky too. We tend to remember the times we are screwed over and forget the times we were touched by the poker gods.
4. After a long run of bad beats, EVERYONE goes on tilt to some degree. Just quit playing for a while in this case. Start fresh a day, week, or month later–whatever works for you.
Anyone else use Quora? This is how I roll. Comment below and I’ll check out your answers.
Posted in: Uncategorized
