Hell’s Cold Day

The more you play poker, the more comfortable you become playing hands. You will probably start playing hands the same way every time they are dealt. This isn’t good. You aren’t mixing up your play, but then you don’t want to mix up your play so much so that you fold pocket kings just because it is out of character. Regardless, this post isn’t about changing up your style, it is about tells.

When you are on poker cruise control, you probably don’t have any clear tells. Tells haunt me most when I am in debatable situations. These situations come with the most frequency short-handed, when I’m betting with weaker starting hands than I would like. I’m not a computer, which means I need time to think about the best decision. Which means I hesitate.

The obvious solution to said problem is to simply not deliberate. However, there is a way to throw off you eagle-eyed competitors while still allowing yourself some headspace.: misdirection. You need to put the breaks on your no-brainers. The next time you are faced with a clear call, don’t make it clear. Pretend to consider a fold, or a raise for the matter. Burn a little time off the clock. You aren’t acting for the benefit of that hand, but for future hands. The next time you truly must take a moment, your opponents will read you based on misinformation. And that is always a good thing.

Today I’m going over a game from a different family of poker. It’s called Guts. If you haven’t heard of it, be afraid.

Like most card games, there are different variations of Guts. My favorite keeps it simple, two-card Guts. The betting beings with an ante. Everyone is dealt two cards down and the players review their hand. The hand strength ranges from a pair of aces being he strongest down to a 3 high card being the weakest. The players then declare whether they are in or out for the round. Declarations must be made by all players and at the same time. This is usually done by players holding their hands out, opening them at the same time, and revealing either a chip (meaning in) or an empty palm. The players who are in showdown their hands. The best hand takes the pot, all losers match the pot. The players who opted out only lose their ante. A new round follows with all players anteing, declaring and showing down once more.

This game is an exercise in escalation. As players stay in and rounds roll over, the pots become huge. To illustrate, an example: If the game has seven players anteing a dollar each, the pot begins at $7. Three players declare in, meaning two will lose. They each pay the pot $7 while the winner takes $7. Round two, everyone antes. The pot is now $21. If round two has 4 players in, the pot will be $70 going into round three. I’ve seen rounds go up to eight and I barely ever play Guts.

It’s hard to appreciate the fortunes won and lost at this game unless you play, but please keep it small. If you are used to putting $50 on the line, I wouldn’t start with antes over a quarter. You’ll be at $50 in no time. Keep in mind the game doesn’t end until only one player declares in, giving the player with the most disposable income a considerable advantage.

I was recently asked if there was a definitive guide to how to play every situation in hold’em. There’s not. It ain’t blackjack. I know some people pride themselves in knowing the higher strategy of 21, but to me the strategy is pretty limited unless you are a card-counter. For the most part I hit until 17 then stay. (Yes, I know about splits and double downs and I do consider the dealer’s cards, but I’ll save that for another post.)

Poker is much more involved. Instead of playing against a dealer that probably abides by house rules, you play against many opponents of varying styles. A correct play against a tight player is incorrect against a loose player. Poker is a game of human genius and human error, both on your part and the part of your opponents. Psychology makes poker more unpredictable than any contest of pure math.

That said, there is a mathematically correct move for every situation, but each situation needs to consider the number of players in the hand, pot size, implied odds, ect. To list off directions for every occasion would take a work that would make War and Peace seem like light reading. And that’s not even considering bluffing or that your opponents may not follow your math. Other major reasons why poker cliff notes are impossible are elements such as relative chip stacks, position, and timing.

If you read enough poker books you can get a grasp of the best move for every starting hand, and I recommend that. However, past the initial bet anything can happen. You need intuition, logic, and a bit of luck to win at poker…not a cheat sheet.

Short on posts lately, I know. But I had to get some new material by actually playing for once. Stay tuned. (And yes, I’m up.)

For now enjoy the newest desktop diversion.

The sucker bet. (n.) A small bet made with a strong hand to increase the pot size. Usually made knowing that other players intend to fold to a large bet, but are willing to stay in for the cheap.

Most players know this definition and may fold over cards and low pairs to avoid falling victim. This over compensation allows for the cheapest bluff in poker. I bet small every once and a while and the most common response goes something like this: “Now, that’s a sucker bet! I’m not falling for that.” And fold. They don’t always state their thought process, but often they do. I suppose to show their “superior” read and justify their fold to a weak bet.

This tip works best against tight players, both passive and aggressive, and when you have established yourself as a tight player. I recommend it when you are heads-up and post-flop, best as a continuation bet. I tend to throw out my small bets when I have absolutely nothing.

Try it, you may be surprised at the results. It doesn’t work all the time, but you are only losing a little more than you would have with a fold. The beauty of the sucker-sucker bet is that it doesn’t have to have a high success rate to still be worth it.

There comes a time in every poker player’s life when the wanderlust sets in. You grow tired of nickel and diming your friends at the kitchen table and want to explore the world of the rounders. Know thyself, caterpillar, before you spread your wings.

The number one identifier of your skill is money. It is, after all, how we keep score. Macro-consistency is everything. Marco meaning not micro. If you have a bad day, or an unprofitable week, it doesn’t necessarily meaning you are a bad player. You want to play long enough to look at the big picture. Do you average a strong profit? What’s you standard deviation? These are questions that can be, and need to be answered with good record keeping and a lengthy poker history.

There isn’t much to learn in the short run. Wins and loses are subject to some luck day to day, but you can still assess your play by looking at how you won or loss. When I correctly read my opponent on a straight draw and bet the pot at him on the turn, I played well, regardless if he calls and catches on the river. Inversely, if I catch trips on the river against an aggressive two-pair, I know I misplayed the hand even though the poker gods were kind to me. I’d go so far to say, as your play on the turn is concerned, luck is inversely related to skill.

Before you make the jump to big money games, also look at the caliber of your normal opponents. You may be winning not only on your own merit, but also due to the lack of skill or seriousness of the rest of the table. Although this is just what you want in poker, it can be hard when gauging your play relative to Gus Hanson. Be sure to go up against more than just the same five guys to experience more styles and see if your consistent winning pattern holds up.

That’s the long way of saying, if you are making money, go to the next level and make more of it. Give yourself a “raise.” You can always go back to the drawing board if  it doesn’t work out. Don’t rush, but don’t be afraid to play to your potential either.

A couple new entries inspired by our favorite double 0 agent…

I present a selection of my favorite poker quotes…

“Listen, here’s the thing. If you can’t spot the sucker in the first half hour at the table, then you ARE the sucker.” - Mike McDermott, “Rounders”

[Poker] exemplifies the worst aspects of capitalism that have made our country so great. ~Walter Matthau

Hold em is to stud what chess is to checkers. ~Johnny Moss

Cards are war, in disguise of a sport. ~Charles Lamb

Nobody is always a winner, and anybody who says he is, is either a liar or doesn’t play poker. ~Amarillo Slim

Poker’s a day to learn and a lifetime to master. ~Robert Williamson III

God does not play dice with the universe; He plays an ineffable game of his own devising, which might be compared, from the perspective of any of the other players [i.e., everybody], to being involved in an obscure and complex version of poker in a pitch-dark room, with blank cards, for infinite stakes, with a Dealer who won’t tell you the rules, and who smiles all the time. ~Terry Pratchett and Neil Gaiman, Good Omens, 1991

Feel free to add your favorite quotes in the comments.

There is one poker obstacle that is unique to on-line play—your computer. A variety of issues can come up that will make Doyle Brunson lose to a class of 5th graders, the most prominent being a bad Internet connection.

You don’t have to be on dial-up to have connection worries. Many things can go wrong with wi-fi and routers and your Internet service provider that may be unavoidable. You need to take it as another way that bad luck can lose you money. On the upside, there are some things you can do to minimalize the damage.

Don’t play online on someone else’s wi-fi network, especially if they don’t know you are doing it. They could shut it down or kick you off without warning. Don’t play a game on a day there could be bad weather. You run the double risk of your connection to the web and your connection to the power dying. Generally, you can tell if something is wrong with your connection before you fire up the poker client. If your browser is moving slowly, don’t risk putting money on the line. There are various websites you can visit to test your bandwidth. Do it.

If you do get kicked off your poker client, don’t panic. Your Internet may still be up. Check with your browser as you restart the poker room. It has been my experience that the poker room fails to server issues more often than something on my end. You will reconnect as soon as they do, and the other players are in the same boat. Chances are no money will be lost.

Sure, I have lost a game due to connection failure, but, honestly, I’ve won a game from it too. When you are heads up with a player who has just timed out, don’t hesitate to take their blinds. It isn’t honorable, but it can’t be helped. If you are aware of the online hazard, you can be sure that it won’t take you as often as that runner runner flush.

Blind Man’s Bluff (also known as Indian Poker, although I’m unsure if the racial reference deals with American Indians or Indian Indians) is one of my favorite poker diversions. I call it a diversion because I can’t imagine playing it consistently hand after hand. The game involves players exposing their single-card hands so that everyone knows the value of the card except for the person playing it. In this way it is the exact opposite of all other forms of poker, earning itself yet another name of my own creation—Bizarro Poker!

My own preference aside, Blind Man’s Bluff is a fitting name. Bluffing is the name of the game, but instead of making your opponents believe you are strong, you need to make them believe that they are weak. They know your strength more than you do, but not relative to themselves.

It is a fun game to watch because most games are played out with the cards on the player’s forehead, however, onlookers change the game by their reactions. I would argue this form of poker relies more heavily on tells than any other. If I have an ace of spades on my forehead, I’m unbeatable, but I could still be convinced to fold with good acting. Often in cases with an ace in play, players seem to come together in an effort to make the ace fold. As a general rule, if people start laughing at you, you either have a two or an ace.

The Bizarro Family of poker can be extended. You could play stud or hold’em with one or more cards visible to everyone but yourself. Experiment to find what you like best, but to me, anything more then Bizarro Highcard gets confusing.