Comments on: Errors in thinking = Errors at the ATM

By: KC

KC — Fri, 03 Apr 2009 14:35:39 +0000

Stop telling people these things – do you realize how much you are costing me in side action?!?!?!?!?!

Just kidding (kind of).

I think many people kind of misunderstand the concept of chance (sorry, Lucky, but I’m talking about you, too, here). Chance, in poker terms, is not necessarily the same as luck, but more akin to probability, and even in the longest of terms, you can only narrow the variance, you can’t eliminate it. So, there will always be chance, no matter what. If you want to call that luck, that’s fine – I probably do a lot, too – but luck doesn’t necessarily mean the difference between being a lifetime winner or loser. It could mean the difference between having a 5% ROI and a 6% ROI over a long haul.

KC’s last blog post..Tips to Make Home Poker Tournaments Run Smoothly

By: LuckyStraights

LuckyStraights — Thu, 02 Apr 2009 17:27:00 +0000

I disagree with your assertion that poker is a game of [part] chance.

I read an article sometime ago on this, sadly I never recorded the link, but it stuck with me. As serious players, we should only care about the long term, any session or even hundreds of sessions is not important it is a much longer view, perhaps of our lifetimes and beyond that is important. In taking this view there is simply no luck in poker, being an inherent game of sill over the long haul you will win what you statistically have coming to you, based on your skill alone, nothing more.

To be fair most people won’t play enough to get sufficient hands in to meet the long run from a mathematical stand point, but I don’t think that invalidates the idea.

If you play long enough, there is zero luck in poker, only over the short term will your winnings be influenced by luck.

By: Spore

Spore — Mon, 30 Mar 2009 21:54:57 +0000

Very nice analysis. These are concepts I am very aware of but struggle with all the time. It's one thing to be aware of it and quite another to use that awareness effectively. Controlling emotions is one of the hardest leaks to fix for a poker player. Many use breathing exercises, meditation, mantras, etc.. to help them. And for good players emotional control is one of, if not the most, important factors to overall performance. Spore’s last blog post..More progress!

By: Grundy

Grundy — Fri, 27 Mar 2009 02:43:56 +0000

It sounds like you were the dog in that hand, but it we think of it as a semi-bluff then you are okay. Even if you didn’t catch, a big bet on the river might have won it for you…but I wouldn’t really know unless I saw the hand history.

By: Steve Brogan

Steve Brogan — Fri, 27 Mar 2009 01:44:20 +0000

I am guilty as charged. In a #tpt tourney about a month ago, I won a hand by staying until the river. It was a four outer and I hit it. That is a 22 to 1 shot. I was criticized about it and thought that the player was being unfair. I thought about it for a week or two after and realized that person was somewhat more right than I was. I tried to rationalize that I was in control as I was the one raising a minimum bet each time and being called instead of being re-raised. After careful consideration, I really had no business to be in the hand after the flop. It was not my great playing ability that won the hand but dumb luck, chance. My actual playing skills are fair at best and need work. Realizing this, I am working at improving my game. In fact, I am always trying to improve by reading, discussing and thinking about the game. Thanks for sharing your thoughts. Steve Brogan’s last blog post..Playing with a wild man at Limit Hold Em

By: roundersbuzz.com

roundersbuzz.com — Fri, 27 Mar 2009 00:45:20 +0000

Errors in thinking = Errors at the ATM | HellsColdDay.com…

Our rational minds are often trumped by our emotions/wishful thinking/drunken state. Which leads us to the topic of today’s post: logical fallacies and how they can be applied to poker and gambling….